Last Sunday, the LOOM model called Georgia at Ole Miss a coin flip: Georgia by 0.1. Georgia won 42-7.
That was the model’s biggest miss of the week, and it moves the board. Georgia is back at No. 1, Ole Miss drops to sixth, and the model still makes the Rebels a 3.5-point favorite at Oklahoma on Saturday.
Here is the full board through Week 11, how the model graded out on its first slate, and what it projects for Week 12.
The board
| Rk | Team | Rating | Record | SEC | SoS | AP | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | +11.3 | 8-1 | 6-1 | −2.8 | 1 | ▲2 |
| 2 | Alabama | +11.2 | 7-2 | 5-2 | +2.2 | 7 | ▼1 |
| 3 | Tennessee | +6.2 | 7-2 | 4-2 | −0.1 | 9 | ▲2 |
| 4 | LSU | +6.2 | 6-3 | 3-3 | −0.3 | 24 | ▼2 |
| 5 | Texas | +3.8 | 7-2 | 4-2 | −0.6 | 8 | ▲2 |
| 6 | Ole Miss | +2.8 | 6-3 | 4-3 | +0.3 | 19 | ▼2 |
| 7 | South Carolina | +1.5 | 6-3 | 4-3 | +0.1 | 20 | ▲2 |
| 8 | Missouri | +0.6 | 6-3 | 3-3 | −2.8 | — | ▼2 |
| 9 | Kentucky | −0.5 | 7-2 | 5-2 | +1.2 | 13 | ▼1 |
| 10 | Texas A&M | −2.8 | 4-5 | 1-5 | +1.4 | — | ▲1 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | −3.2 | 5-4 | 3-3 | +1.0 | — | ▲2 |
| 12 | Florida | −3.3 | 5-4 | 3-4 | +1.6 | — | ▼2 |
| 13 | Auburn | −5.8 | 5-4 | 3-4 | +0.3 | — | ▼1 |
| 14 | Mississippi State | −6.6 | 4-5 | 2-5 | +1.3 | — | — |
| 15 | Arkansas | −10.6 | 3-6 | 1-5 | −0.2 | — | — |
| 16 | Vanderbilt | −10.8 | 4-5 | 1-5 | −1.6 | — | — |
Rating: points better (+) or worse (−) than an average SEC team on a neutral field. SoS: the average rating of the SEC opponents a team has played. AP: the Nov. 8 AP Top 25. Chg: spots moved since last week’s board.
Three things stand out. Georgia and Alabama are 0.1 points apart, and 4.9 points clear of third-place Tennessee, the widest gap anywhere on the board. Ole Miss lost more rating than any team in the league. And the model and the AP poll split in opposite directions on two teams: the poll has seven SEC teams ahead of LSU and the model has three, while the poll has four ahead of Kentucky and the model has eight.
Team by team
1. Georgia (+11.3)
The Bulldogs move back to the top, 0.1 points ahead of Alabama, on the strength of the most lopsided SEC result of the week: 42-7 in Oxford, 28-0 at halftime. Gunner Stockton threw four touchdown passes, three of them to Talyn Taylor, who caught four balls for 140 yards. Georgia rose 2.9 points, the biggest gain on the board. The catch has not changed: its SEC opponents still average −2.8, the softest slate in the league. Missouri visits Saturday, and the model has Georgia by 13.1.
2. Alabama (+11.2)
Alabama has played the toughest SEC schedule in the league (+2.2) and won 31-13 in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Keelon Russell threw three touchdown passes on a bad ankle, and the Crimson Tide stopped LSU on all four of its fourth-down tries despite being outgained 457-285. The one thing keeping it from No. 1 is the 20-17 home loss to Georgia. Alabama goes to Vanderbilt as a 19.5-point favorite in the model, the widest projection of the week.
3. Tennessee (+6.2)
The Vols beat Kentucky 34-6 at Neyland after leading only 10-6 at halftime, scoring the last 24 points of the game. The 26-10 win over Alabama still anchors the profile, and the two losses were by three points each. Tennessee and LSU are separated by hundredths of a point. The Vols go to Texas A&M as a 6.6-point favorite.
4. LSU (+6.2)
LSU had won all five of its home games, then lost 31-13 to Alabama in Tiger Stadium. Sam Leavitt threw for 380 yards and no touchdowns. The rating fell 2.6 points, yet LSU is still fourth. The AP poll, which has LSU at No. 24, ranks seven SEC teams ahead of it; the LOOM model ranks three. Texas visits Saturday night, and the model has LSU by 4.9.
5. Texas (+3.8)
The Longhorns trailed 20-13 in Columbia in the third quarter, then scored three straight touchdowns to win 34-20. Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three scores. That is three straight wins since the back-to-back three-point losses to Oklahoma and Florida, and Texas is up two spots. It goes to LSU as a 4.9-point underdog in the model.
6. Ole Miss (+2.8)
The Rebels fell 3.0 points, the biggest drop on the board, and two spots to sixth. Georgia won 42-7 in Oxford, ending a 16-game home winning streak, and the numbers were one-sided: 481 total yards to 252, 295 rushing yards to 66, five sacks. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 170 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, and Shekai Mills-Knight’s 8-yard run in the fourth quarter was the only score. The model caps every margin at 28, so the 35-point loss counts as 28. The résumé that kept Ole Miss in the top six is still there: the 32-24 win over LSU, now fourth on the board, and a 52-17 win at Vanderbilt.
7. South Carolina (+1.5)
Four straight wins and bowl-eligible. The Gamecocks beat Texas A&M 17-9 while being outgained 457-360, and LaNorris Sellers sealed it with a 41-yard touchdown run in the final seconds after an ankle scare before halftime. They are up two spots and go to Arkansas as a 9.6-point favorite.
8. Missouri (+0.6)
Missouri led Texas 20-13 in the third quarter at home and lost 34-20, and it fell out of the AP Top 25. Its SEC schedule (−2.8) is the second-softest in the league, ahead of only Georgia’s, and that is where it goes Saturday. The model has Georgia by 13.1.
9. Kentucky (−0.5)
Tennessee ended Kentucky’s six-game winning streak, 34-6, and the Wildcats fell to No. 13 in the AP poll. They are 7-2 and the only AP-ranked SEC team the LOOM model rates below average (−0.5). Two one-point overtime wins are a big part of the gap. Florida comes to Lexington, and the model has Kentucky by 5.4.
10. Texas A&M (−2.8)
The Aggies did not score a touchdown in a 17-9 loss at South Carolina, their third straight SEC loss, and they are 0-4 on the road. At 1-5 in the league, they rate 10th on the full model, but drop to 12th when only SEC games are counted, the one team on the board that moves two spots under the sensitivity checks. Tennessee visits Kyle Field.
11. Oklahoma (−3.2)
Jason Witten’s debut as Oklahoma’s interim offensive coordinator produced a 23-7 win at Florida, with John Mateer throwing two touchdown passes and the defense holding the Gators to 203 yards. The Sooners rose 2.4 points, the third-biggest gain on the board. Ole Miss comes to Norman next.
12. Florida (−3.3)
Four losses in five games after a 4-0 start. Oklahoma won 23-7 in Gainesville, Tramell Jones Jr. made the start at quarterback, and Florida finished with 203 yards. The Gators fell two spots. They go to Kentucky as a 5.4-point underdog.
13. Auburn (−5.8)
Alex McPherson’s 42-yard field goal with 33 seconds left beat Arkansas 26-23, his second game-winner this season. Auburn is 5-4 and one win from bowl eligibility. It goes to Mississippi State in the closest game of the week: Mississippi State by 1.8.
14. Mississippi State (−6.6)
Five straight losses after a 4-0 start. AJ Swann found Sanfrisco Magee for a touchdown as time ran out, but the two-point try to tie Vanderbilt failed, 25-23. The Bulldogs host Auburn, and the Egg Bowl is Nov. 27.
15. Arkansas (−10.6)
Three straight losses, the latest 26-23 at Auburn on a field goal in the final minute. The Razorbacks host South Carolina as a 9.6-point underdog.
16. Vanderbilt (−10.8)
The Commodores won their first SEC game of the season, 25-23 at Mississippi State, their first win in Starkville since 1971. Brock Taylor kicked a school-record six field goals. Vanderbilt and Arkansas are separated by 0.2 points at the bottom. Alabama visits Saturday.
How the LOOM model did last week
The model went 4-4 straight up on the Week 11 slate, and its projections missed the final margin by an average of 17.1 points. All four misses were road teams winning: Alabama at LSU, Texas at Missouri, Oklahoma at Florida and Vanderbilt at Mississippi State. It had Georgia as the favorite in Oxford, by 0.1, and missed that margin by 34.9 points. One week is a small sample, and the model will be graded in this space every week.
What the LOOM model projects for Week 12
| Game | LOOM model |
|---|---|
| Ole Miss at Oklahoma | Ole Miss by 3.5 |
| Auburn at Mississippi State | Mississippi State by 1.8 |
| Texas at LSU | LSU by 4.9 |
| Florida at Kentucky | Kentucky by 5.4 |
| Tennessee at Texas A&M | Tennessee by 6.6 |
| South Carolina at Arkansas | South Carolina by 9.6 |
| Missouri at Georgia | Georgia by 13.1 |
| Alabama at Vanderbilt | Alabama by 19.5 |
Projected margins include 2.5 points for home field. These are model projections, not betting lines.
The model rates Ole Miss 6.0 points better than Oklahoma, and Norman gives 2.5 of that back. Oklahoma is coming off a 16-point win at Florida, but all three of its SEC wins came away from home. In Norman it lost to Kentucky, 21-13, and to South Carolina, 42-25.
By the model, Ole Miss wins this one about 60 percent of the time. After Saturday, that is not a number anyone in Oxford will take for granted.
How the LOOM model works
Every game an SEC team has played this season goes in. Each margin of victory is compared to what the two teams’ ratings predict, with 2.5 points for the home team, and the ratings are adjusted until they explain the results as well as possible. Margins are capped at 28 points, so a blowout of an overmatched opponent cannot inflate a rating. Non-conference games count at half weight, because one game against a non-SEC opponent says less than a full conference schedule. Ratings are centered so the average SEC team is 0.0.
The model knows scores and sites. It does not know injuries, quarterback changes or turnover luck, which is why every team gets a word above. Records and margins come from team schedules cross-checked against at least two sources.
Photo: Trinidad Chambliss, November 7, 2026, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images.