One day out from Georgia, and Friday’s show wasn’t about the ways the Bulldogs could win — we spent all week on that. Friday was about why Ole Miss wins it. Number 10 hosting number 2 under the lights at Vaught-Hemingway, with a playoff host spot and the back half of the season riding on one night. Here’s how we broke it down. Hotty Toddy.
Three Reasons Ole Miss Wins It
Reason one is Trinidad Chambliss, and it starts with a Heisman moment. He’s thrown a touchdown pass in 21 straight games — one more ties Chad Kelly’s program record — he leads the SEC in completions and points responsible per game, and he’s one of just three active quarterbacks with 9,000 career passing yards and 2,000 career rushing yards. Even Kirby Smart, asked how you defend him, answered “how long you got?” and called Chambliss probably the best quarterback in the country. On a stage like this, give him three or four special plays and the scoreboard takes care of itself.
Reason two is the defense winning first and second down — just enough, not every snap. We saw exactly what that looks like against Auburn: held to 2.3 yards a carry, 27 rushes for barely 60 yards, 10 tackles for loss, four sacks. Win early downs, make Georgia punt, and third-and-seven inside a building that’s won 16 straight at home becomes a very different game. Reason three is the cleanest game of the year — no turnovers, no dumb penalties, no four-yard runs that turn into 40. Pete Golding said the difference between the loss in Athens and the Sugar Bowl win was communication, tackling, and getting Georgia off rhythm. That’s the formula again.
The Players Who Decide It
Chambliss is the whole thing, but the back beside him matters. With Kewan Lacy out again, Shekai Mills-Knight takes the carries — a 6-foot-2, 220-plus back out of Montreal that Golding calls a “different dimension” runner. He led Ole Miss in rushing against Auburn, and if he gets four yards a pop, Chambliss gets his play-action. Makhi Frazier factors into that rotation too.
On defense, keep your eye on Keaton Thomas — the green dot, the fifth-year transfer, the eraser in the middle. If Georgia runs it, he fills the gaps; if they throw it to the tight ends, he’s in coverage. Win early downs and Tah’j Butler, Suntarine Perkins and Kam Franklin get to pin their ears back on third-and-long, and that’s where this defense can flip the night.
The Number, And What It’s Really Saying
Georgia opened as a 3.5-point favorite on FanDuel and never moved off it all week — the same 3.5, the same 56.5 total from Thursday through Sunday. On the money line Ole Miss sat at +142, which is a little better than a 40% shot to win outright at home. Here’s the tell: 64% of the spread bets came in on Georgia, but only about half of the actual money. More tickets on the Dogs, the bigger tickets splitting the other way.
Our own Loom power model landed the game on a razor’s edge — a flat coin flip. And my final call matched the gut: Chambliss gets his moment on ABC, the defense wins enough on early downs, and Ole Miss plays its cleanest game of the year.
Ole Miss is going to win this game 27 to 21.
Also on the Show
We also brought on Ole Miss legend Todd Wade to dig into the Auburn tape and the Georgia matchup. He loved the balanced, grind-it-out attack against Auburn and wants more of it — Trinidad running by design, Mills-Knight mashing behind an offensive line that’s the best in the SEC at keeping the quarterback clean. He’s as high on Chambliss the runner as anybody.
He’s a special runner. I haven’t seen a runner like him in a long time.
Todd Wade
Wade called it the biggest game of his Ole Miss lifetime — bigger now than the LSU game — with the middle of the field deciding it. His score landed at Ole Miss 27-24, right in line with where we did.
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