The SEC standings say Georgia is the class of the league. The AP poll says the same thing, at No. 2. The LOOM model, which rates every SEC team by how many points better or worse it is than an average conference team, does not agree.
By the model, Georgia at Ole Miss on Saturday is a dead coin flip: Georgia by 0.1 points.
This is the first edition of the LOOM SEC Power Ratings. Here is the full board through Week 10, what it sees in each team, and what it projects for Saturday.
The board
| Rk | Team | Rating | Record | SEC | SoS | AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | +9.1 | 6-2 | 4-2 | +1.1 | 9 |
| 2 | LSU | +8.8 | 6-2 | 3-2 | −1.2 | 15 |
| 3 | Georgia | +8.4 | 7-1 | 5-1 | −4.4 | 2 |
| 4 | Ole Miss | +5.8 | 6-2 | 4-2 | −0.7 | 12 |
| 5 | Tennessee | +3.5 | 6-2 | 3-2 | −0.8 | 16 |
| 6 | Missouri | +2.8 | 6-2 | 3-2 | −3.0 | 19 |
| 7 | Texas | +2.3 | 6-2 | 3-2 | −0.7 | 10 |
| 8 | Kentucky | +1.3 | 7-1 | 5-1 | −0.1 | 8 |
| 9 | South Carolina | +1.1 | 5-3 | 3-3 | +0.2 | 23 |
| 10 | Florida | −1.2 | 5-3 | 3-3 | +2.5 | 25 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | −2.3 | 4-4 | 1-4 | +2.1 | — |
| 12 | Auburn | −5.2 | 4-4 | 2-4 | +2.3 | — |
| 13 | Oklahoma | −5.6 | 4-4 | 2-3 | +1.5 | — |
| 14 | Mississippi State | −5.8 | 4-4 | 2-4 | +3.1 | — |
| 15 | Arkansas | −11.5 | 3-5 | 1-4 | +0.2 | — |
| 16 | Vanderbilt | −11.7 | 3-5 | 0-5 | −0.2 | — |
Rating: points better (+) or worse (−) than an average SEC team on a neutral field. SoS: the average rating of the SEC opponents a team has played. AP: the Nov. 1 AP Top 25.
Three things stand out. Alabama, LSU and Georgia are separated by 0.7 points, which is a statistical tie. Ole Miss sits alone at No. 4, 2.3 points clear of Tennessee. And there is a 5.7-point gap between Mississippi State and Arkansas, the widest anywhere on the board.
Team by team
1. Alabama (+9.1)
The Crimson Tide own the top number without owning the best résumé, and that is the honest read of what the LOOM model rewards. Alabama has played the toughest SEC schedule of any contender (+1.1) and won its league games convincingly — 56-23 at Mississippi State, 49-18 over South Carolina, 45-17 at Kentucky — while its two losses came by a field goal to Georgia and by 16 at Tennessee. Keelon Russell’s three touchdown passes ended the two-game skid against Texas A&M. The proof arrives Saturday in Baton Rouge.
2. LSU (+8.8)
Lane Kiffin’s first LSU team rates second on the strength of what it does in Tiger Stadium: five home games, five wins, including 51-10 over Clemson and 35-6 over Texas A&M. Away from home it is 1-2, and one of those losses came in Oxford, 32-24, on Sept. 19. Sam Leavitt’s 387-yard day at Auburn was the best offensive game of LSU’s season. The Tigers host Alabama off a bye, and the model makes them a 2.2-point favorite.
3. Georgia (+8.4)
Seven wins, the best record in the league, the head-to-head win in Tuscaloosa — and third. Here is why: Georgia’s SEC opponents average −4.4 in the LOOM model, the softest conference slate any contender has played. Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma are three of the six. The one loss came at home to a 4-4 Auburn team on a walk-off field goal. Tuscaloosa proved Georgia can win the big road game. The rest of the schedule has not asked it to do much else. Saturday in Oxford does.
4. Ole Miss (+5.8)
The Rebels rate fourth, 2.6 points behind Georgia, and the gap at the top is smaller than the records suggest. The 32-24 win over LSU is a win over the No. 2 team on this board. The two losses are the problem: 52-28 at Florida is the ugliest margin by any top-five team, and a late rally at Texas fell short, 34-27. Saturday showed the version the model likes: 45-15 over Auburn with Kewan Lacy out, 224 rushing yards, 13 of 16 on third down. Georgia comes to Vaught-Hemingway next, and the model calls it even.
5. Tennessee (+3.5)
The Vols rate as the best of the 6-2 pack after George MacIntyre took over for an injured Faizon Brandon and Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10. Both losses were by three points, to Texas and at South Carolina. Kentucky visits Saturday, and the model has Tennessee by 4.7.
6. Missouri (+2.8)
Austin Simmons and Missouri have the most volatile profile in the league. They beat Florida 45-17 and won 34-10 at Arkansas on Saturday, but they also lost 31-3 in Oxford and 31-24 at Mississippi State. A soft SEC schedule (−3.0) holds the number down. Texas comes to Columbia, and the model has Missouri by 3.
7. Texas (+2.3)
The Longhorns own a 24-23 win over Ohio State after trailing 23-3, and the model still rates them seventh. That is what back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida do to the number, and the Ohio State win counts at half weight like every non-conference game. They beat Ole Miss and handled Mississippi State 31-3, but Arch Manning’s team has not beaten an SEC opponent by more than seven points except the Bulldogs.
8. Kentucky (+1.3)
The biggest gap between record and rating on the board. Will Stein’s first team is 7-1 with five straight SEC wins, the program’s first such streak since 1977, according to SEC Network. But two of those wins came by one point in overtime, against South Carolina and LSU in back-to-back weeks, and the one lopsided result was a 45-17 loss to Alabama. The model believes in Kentucky’s results. It does not believe they will keep breaking this way.
9. South Carolina (+1.1)
LaNorris Sellers has the Gamecocks rolling: three straight SEC wins, including a comeback over Tennessee and a 42-25 win at Oklahoma on Saturday in which he accounted for five touchdowns. That got them ranked for the first time this season. The 2-3 start — including a 49-18 loss at Alabama — keeps the rating in the middle of the league for now.
10. Florida (−1.2)
No team has been harder to rate. Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28 and won in Austin, then lost to Missouri by 28, South Carolina by 19 and Georgia by 19. The Gators have faced the second-hardest SEC slate in the league (+2.5), and Aaron Philo’s shoulder has left the quarterback spot unsettled. Oklahoma visits Saturday.
11. Texas A&M (−2.3)
Preseason No. 8, now 4-4 and 1-4 in the league. The SEC losses to LSU (35-6) and Missouri (27-6) were not close, and the late collapse at Alabama raised fresh questions about Marcel Reed. Mike Elko has stayed with him. The Aggies go to South Carolina as a 5.9-point underdog in the model.
12. Auburn (−5.2)
Alex Golesh’s team has the single biggest upset of the SEC season — the walk-off win at No. 1 Georgia — and almost nothing else to support it. Since Athens, Auburn has lost to LSU by 21 and to Ole Miss by 30, and Byrum Brown was held to five rushing yards in Oxford. Arkansas visits Saturday.
13. Oklahoma (−5.6)
The Sooners beat No. 1 Texas on a walk-off field goal in Dallas, and that is the season. The offense has scored 14 or fewer points in four games, and South Carolina put 42 on them in Norman on Saturday. At 4-4, Oklahoma heads to Gainesville, then hosts Ole Miss.
14. Mississippi State (−5.8)
Four straight losses after a 4-0 start that reached No. 16 in the AP poll. Losing quarterback Kamario Taylor for the season to turf toe has turned a fringe-ranked team into one that scored three points at Texas. The Egg Bowl is Nov. 27. Vanderbilt visits first.
15. Arkansas (−11.5)
The Razorbacks broke a 14-game SEC losing streak at Vanderbilt in October, Ryan Silverfield’s first league win. Missouri then won 34-10 in Fayetteville on Saturday, helped by four Arkansas turnovers.
16. Vanderbilt (−11.7)
A 3-0 start, then five straight SEC losses, including 52-17 to Ole Miss. Injuries at quarterback have made a hard season harder. The Commodores and Arkansas are separated by 0.2 points for the bottom spot.
What the LOOM model projects for Week 11
| Game | LOOM model |
|---|---|
| Georgia at Ole Miss | Georgia by 0.1 — a coin flip |
| Alabama at LSU | LSU by 2.2 |
| Texas at Missouri | Missouri by 3.0 |
| Kentucky at Tennessee | Tennessee by 4.7 |
| Oklahoma at Florida | Florida by 7.0 |
| Texas A&M at South Carolina | South Carolina by 5.9 |
| Arkansas at Auburn | Auburn by 8.8 |
| Vanderbilt at Mississippi State | Mississippi State by 8.4 |
Projected margins include 2.5 points for home field. These are model projections, not betting lines.
Georgia at Ole Miss is the closest game on the slate, and it is not close to second. Ole Miss’s 2.6-point rating gap to Georgia is almost exactly what home field gives back. Georgia has played one game against an SEC team rated above Ole Miss, and it won that one by three. Ole Miss has beaten the team rated second in the league by eight.
Georgia already won one game like this, 20-17 in Tuscaloosa. Saturday asks it to do it twice.
How the LOOM model works
Every game an SEC team has played this season goes in. Each margin of victory is compared to what the two teams’ ratings predict, with 2.5 points for the home team, and the ratings are adjusted until they explain the results as well as possible. Margins are capped at 28 points, so a blowout of an overmatched opponent cannot inflate a rating. Non-conference games count at half weight, because one game against a non-SEC opponent says less than a full conference schedule. Ratings are centered so the average SEC team is 0.0.
The model knows scores and sites. It does not know injuries, quarterback changes or turnover luck, which is why every team gets a word above. Records and margins come from team schedules cross-checked against at least two sources.
Photo: Trinidad Chambliss and Makhi Frazier react with Horatio Fields after a touchdown, October 31, 2026, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images.