The Friday show was all about one thing: why Ole Miss gets right against Auburn. I walked through three reasons the Rebels win in Oxford, laid out the three keys, gave you the players I’m watching, and read the FanDuel line before landing on a score. It’s a get-right spot for Trinidad Chambliss, a get-serious week for a defense that heard all week long exactly what beat it, and a chance to bank a win with Georgia just eight days away. Here’s how it broke down. Hotty Toddy.
A Trinidad Chambliss Get-Right Game
The lede was simple: “This is going to be a Trinidad Chambliss get-right game. Period.” After a rough three-interception night in Austin — 25 of 52, two touchdowns, three picks — the matchup is the point. Auburn just surrendered 387 passing yards to LSU, ranks 60th in the country in EPA per pass and 85th in success rate, and had one corner get targeted ten times and give up ten catches. That is a secondary you can throw on, and Chambliss knows it.
Even on his worst night, Chambliss extended his touchdown-pass streak to 20 straight games — two shy of Chad Kelly’s program record. And with Kewan Lacy banged up and likely done for the year with a shoulder, Michigan State transfer Makhi Frazier steps in as the lead back. Feed him early: a run game that works on first down is the best friend of a quarterback coming off a three-pick game.
Eliminate the Quarterback Run
Reason two lives on defense. Pete Golding’s stated job for this unit was to eliminate the quarterback run, and I expect the Rebels to be locked in on it. Auburn’s Byrum Brown came in with 487 rushing yards and six rushing scores, and the tape everybody studied this week was the fourth quarter at Texas, where the Longhorns ran for 121 yards down the stretch. Keep Brown to small gains, make him a thrower on third down, and don’t lose your rush lanes chasing him.
The name I’m watching here is Baylor transfer Keaton Thomas, second on the team in tackles — the athletic linebacker who has to be in Brown’s face when he scrambles. If Thomas is making the stop at the line of scrimmage, the whole plan holds up. If he’s chasing Brown 15 yards downfield, it’s a longer night than any of us want.
Play a Clean Game
Reason three is the one the losses keep teaching: take care of the football, no dumb penalties, and tackle well. The theme in every loss this year has been self-inflicted — turnovers, missed tackles, getting out of your own way too late. When Ole Miss cleaned it up in the second half at Texas, it looked like a different team.
Then there’s home. Ole Miss has won 15 straight in Oxford since 2021 and is 38-13 at Vaught-Hemingway over five seasons. The way I put it on the crossover: the Vaught-Hemingway that Auburn fans remember from 2022 doesn’t exist anymore. Don’t hand Auburn a way in, and this team should be just fine.
The Line, and the Score
On the market: FanDuel had Ole Miss a 13.5-point favorite (-104), Auburn +13.5 (-118), with a total of 56.5 and the Rebels -490 on the money line. The number moved toward Ole Miss all week — it opened around 10.5 and sat at -12.5 on Monday — so the spread climbed a point while the total dipped a point. The market was signaling more Ole Miss and fewer points, and that -490 money line works out to roughly an 83% chance of a Rebels win, a big number for a team coming off a loss. The show reads the market; it doesn’t tell you what to bet.
My score? Ole Miss 38, Auburn 17. If Chambliss is anywhere close to his Missouri form against that secondary, the Rebels live in the high 30s — and if Frazier gets going early, it could be more. Pair that with a defense that spent a full week hearing about the fourth quarter at Texas, and I don’t think Auburn has enough to keep up.
Also on the Show
I leaned on the week’s crossover with Locked On Auburn, where the throughline was that Auburn needs help — a Chambliss turnover, a fumble, a bad penalty — to steal this one. And on guest voices like Bill Flowers, whose worry was simple: if Brown decides to run first, he could run all over Ole Miss. The counter ran through the whole show — don’t help, and Auburn doesn’t have enough.
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