Friday’s Flagship was the “Why Ole Miss Wins” episode on Missouri Eve, and Steven built the whole hour around one counterintuitive idea: the Tigers showing up with the best run defense Ole Miss would face all season was good news, not bad. Three reasons, the keys to the game, the names to watch, and a long look at a betting market that couldn’t make up its mind. Here’s how the show went. Hotty Toddy.
Missouri built a defense to stop the run — so throw it first
Missouri came in giving up 78.3 rushing yards a game at 2.4 a carry — the stingiest run front Ole Miss would see all year. Steven’s read was that this was exactly why Ole Miss wins: “Missouri built a defense to stop the run, and Trinidad Chambliss’s offense doesn’t need a run game.” Nobody runs on Missouri, so don’t try to run to set up the pass — do it the other way around. Chambliss throws to set up the run, and Ole Miss ranked 15th in the country through the air at better than 300 yards a game.
The mechanism was the RPO. Missouri’s linebackers fly downhill on early-down runs, so you show them the run and drop the ball behind them to Caleb Odom in the space they vacate, or out to the slot with Traylon Ray and Johntay Cook. Steven pointed to Vanderbilt as the blueprint: Ole Miss came out throwing, built the lead, then ran for 196 once the defense was worn down. Build the early lead and Missouri’s run-first identity — Jamal Roberts and all — never gets to breathe.
Pete Golding’s defense has one job: first and second down
The defensive plan, per Steven, was simple: win first and second down and the rest takes care of itself. Missouri runs for 181 a game, and the whole afternoon turns on whether the Tigers are sitting at third-and-2, where the run game eats, or third-and-8, where the quarterback has to throw into Golding’s disguises. Steven framed Golding’s week as one question: how do you make the same things look different and different things look the same?
That is a front-seven game, and it’s where Ole Miss is built to win. Blake Purchase leads the team with 3.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss, Suntarine Perkins already owns 20 career sacks (fifth in school history), and Will Echoles grades as the highest NFL prospect on the roster on Bleacher Report’s board. Clean up the penalties — Ole Miss was flagged 11 times at Vanderbilt — and the math tilts toward the Rebels.
The names to watch
Trinidad Chambliss carried a touchdown pass in 18 straight games into the weekend — one more ties Matt Corral — and sat just outside the program’s career passing top 10. Kewan Lacy brought a rushing touchdown in 13 straight games played, the longest Ole Miss streak since records began in 1956, plus 29 career rushing scores, third in school history. Missouri’s stated plan was to hold Lacy under 50 yards; Steven said he trusts the streak over the defense.
The targets that make it all go live in the middle of the field. Deuce Alexander is averaging 106 receiving yards a game, 13th in the country, and his 39-yard touchdown at Vanderbilt went straight through the seam those linebackers vacate. Lean into 12 and 13 personnel with Luke Hasz and Michael Smith, and Chambliss has even more of that space to work.
The honest caveat — and a market that split
Steven didn’t bury the worry: Ole Miss had been outscored 59-29 in third quarters this season, Vanderbilt included. The lead has to survive halftime, because Missouri is better late and was going to make the second half uncomfortable.
On the market, per FanDuel Ole Miss was a 6.5-point favorite — the line slid toward 5.5 on news around safety Edwin Joseph — with the total around 58.5 and the Rebels at -210 on the moneyline. The number Steven kept circling: 54% of spread tickets were on Missouri, but the bigger dollars were on Ole Miss. That’s the classic bets-versus-money split, the public and the heavier money pointing in opposite directions on the same game.
Also on the show
Steven folded in two outside predictions from the week’s crossovers. Ole Miss voice Bill Flowers had called it 42-28 Ole Miss on Wednesday; Locked On Mizzou, on the crossover, saw a grind at 28-24 Missouri. Steven’s sense was that the truth sat closer to Flowers’ side than to a low-scoring upset.
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