SEC After Dark ran the Week 3 board Thursday night, and for the first time all season the room did not spend the whole hour arguing. It spent it agreeing — on Ole Miss, on Auburn at home, on Alabama by a pile — and then went hunting for the one number that would make somebody flinch. Eleven games, one contrarian holding the entire minority position by himself, and a main event the panel half stopped handicapping because everybody wanted to talk about how good it is going to be.
The crew: Corey Burton (Locked On Vandy, Locked On Falcons) hosting, Steven Willis (Locked On Ole Miss), Mike Huseman (Offseason After Dark), Jake Thomas (Bama After Dark, Tide Talk Live), and Hank of Biscuits and SEC, now co-hosting Locked On Aggies. Becky and Jeb turned in picks without being on the call. Boss Man was out — family weekend in West Texas, and he is getting the RV to Baton Rouge next week. The cards are below.
Ole Miss vs. LSU
Four of five took Ole Miss, and the argument was not about the crowd. Steven’s read is schematic: Ole Miss has not run a single quarterback-designed run through three games, for the obvious reason that if Trinidad Chambliss had gone down against Charlotte the season goes with him. Those runs show up Saturday. He expects Chambliss to carry it around ten times, and he pointed at Blake Baker’s history against dual-threat quarterbacks as the reason it matters — the quarterbacks LSU has teed off on so far are pocket passers, and Chambliss is not one.
Corey took Ole Miss from the other direction: LSU does not view Chambliss as a runner, and by the time they adjust to that, the passing game has already hit. He also thinks LSU has a problem with Deuce Alexander that they had last year with the same cornerbacks. Steven’s add — Alexander is the fastest receiver in college football, which means corners play loose, which means the hitch game opens up underneath for Caleb Cunningham.
Jake took Ole Miss on Sam Leavitt: the last time he played in the state of Mississippi he threw for eighty-something yards, and until that changes, the Ole Miss front is the story. Hank took Ole Miss on strength of schedule — he thinks Louisville is a considerably better football team than Clemson, that this Ole Miss staff has already been tested, and that LSU’s week-one win is being priced as though Clemson were good.
Mike was the lone LSU pick and said so plainly: the margins are tight, it could go either way, and he is giving the Tigers the nod barely. His case is personnel — Tre’Dez Green, two receivers he likes, a committee running the ball, and a defense he rates even after throwing out the Louisiana Tech tape.
The one counterintuitive number of the night, from Steven: Ole Miss has allowed one touchdown on five or six red-zone trips this season. Louisville got its points on a handful of explosives and almost nothing else.
Florida at Auburn
Florida is favored by 2.5, which the room immediately pointed out makes the spread irrelevant — it is a straight-up pick. It split three and three.
Auburn got Steven, Corey and Mike. Steven’s case is that this has been a weird series in a weird place going back thirty years, that Auburn is talented enough to make Florida hurt, and that we already watched these athletes beat Florida a year ago in different uniforms. Corey’s is the same instinct with a shrug attached: something strange happens at Auburn, and Byron Brown only has to be part of one of them. Mike brought a number — Auburn is allowing 2.2 yards a carry, which he thinks is enough to keep it close — and then agreed about the voodoo.
Florida got Jake, Hank and Becky. Hank’s X factor is Buster Faulkner: the competition has been bad, but the offense is humming, and he trusts the plan in a hostile building. Jake’s is simpler — Auburn opened last week with a pick six on the first snap, that is not happening twice, and he is not sold on Brown yet. Steven’s counterpoint to the Florida side is worth keeping: Auburn’s defensive coordinator has allowed one 100-yard rusher in his entire time there.
Alabama vs. Florida State
Alabama is laying about three touchdowns and Mike took the points, with Becky alongside him. He thinks Alabama wins — he just does not think it is by twenty-one, and he put a number on it: 28-14 or 31-14.
Corey and Jake both took Alabama to cover, and Corey’s reasoning was about the building rather than the football. Florida State just had its athletic director fired, there are rumors about the head coach’s job riding on this game, and a program on that footing can quit in a hurry. Jake’s interest is the matchup underneath it — Alabama is giving up about 65 rushing yards a game right now, and Florida State has a back averaging over 116. If that back gets going, Florida State has a path. If not, Jake thinks Alabama covers easily.
Mississippi State vs. South Carolina
Mike changed his mind on this one live and explained the mechanism, which is the most useful thing anybody did all night. He had been on Mississippi State with the points, then looked at what has actually bothered LaNorris Sellers over the last year and a half: defenses that force turnovers. Mississippi State has not forced one all season. So he took South Carolina.
Corey and Steven went the other way on Kamario Taylor, who Corey says is electric and is being coached in a system that is starting to hum. Steven’s framing: whoever contains the other quarterback wins this game, full stop. Worth noting for the South Carolina side — Dylan Stewart is expected to play his first game of the season.
Texas A&M at Kentucky
Hank took A&M to cover and did not enjoy doing it. He thinks this plays out like last week against Arizona State — close through the half, maybe into the third quarter — and that A&M will have to pull away on offense this time, because two defensive touchdowns and a muffed punt inside the 10 is not a plan. His number is 31-14, which he called barely over.
Corey’s read on Kentucky is the season in one line: good first half, out of gas in the second, which is both why year one under the new staff is going to be rough and why there is something there.
Vanderbilt vs. NC State
Both Vanderbilt guys took Vanderbilt, and they got there differently. Corey wants the Jared Curtis debut and an identity Vanderbilt should have established a week earlier; he has Vanderbilt by a touchdown. Mike went to the line of scrimmage and the stat sheet — NC State has 900 yards in two games, 760 of them against an FCS opponent and 130 against Virginia. He thinks Vanderbilt’s defensive line dominates this one.
The rest of the board
- Georgia vs. Arkansas — near-unanimous Georgia. Becky and Jeb took the Hogs and were not on the call to defend it.
- Texas vs. UTSA — Becky and Hank took the Roadrunners with the points, and Mike is with them: he expects enough of an emotional letdown that Texas wins by four touchdowns or fewer. The room also thinks UTSA is legitimately decent — several preseason picks had them second or third in their conference.
- Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State — Mike took the points against a number in the mid-thirties. Two run-heavy teams means the clock never stops moving, and he does not think the game gets there. His own caveat: Kennesaw looked awful last week, and this could end 65-7 and make him look silly.
- Oklahoma vs. New Mexico — Steven took New Mexico with the points. He thinks Oklahoma wins by three touchdowns and that is not a cover, he expects a hangover off the Michigan trip, and he likes what Jason Eck can do. Mike’s supporting number: New Mexico has one of the best defenses in the country statistically.
- Missouri vs. Troy — not on the official board, but Steven likes Troy to cover.
The viewing note
College GameDay is in Oxford with Morgan Freeman as the guest picker, which the panel agreed is about the best guest-picker booking available to anybody. Steven has eight shows scheduled between Thursday night and kickoff, is doing radio Friday morning, and will be running a live show through the game itself with Jeb producing the chat. The pregame ritual, for the record: Oasis in the shower, then Superman, then a nap.
Picks are picks. Play them on FanDuel at your own risk. Hotty Toddy 🦈