It’s the only game that matters this weekend, Everydayers, so Thursday I brought in Chris Gordy of Locked On SEC to break down Ole Miss–LSU from both sidelines. We hit the storylines that have turned Week 3 into a nine-month grudge match, the players who actually decide it, whether Pete Golding should finally take the training wheels off Trinidad Chambliss, and where each of us lands on the final score. Two top-10 teams, the Magnolia Bowl, and a coaching chess match with more shared reps than either side wants to admit. Let’s get into it. Hotty Toddy.
It’s Going to Come Down to Four Plays
Strip away the noise and this is a rivalry game between two top-10 teams that would be must-see even with a generic coach on the other side — but the coach on the other side isn’t generic, and that’s what’s made this week what it is. The gamesmanship has been non-stop: LSU spent the week playing the little-brother card, pointing at our 11 wins and two Heisman guys against their seven wins a year ago, and every bit of bulletin-board material got answered in kind. Gordy put the tone perfectly: “If LSU comes out and says the sky’s blue, Ole Miss is gonna go, ‘Nuh-uh, it’s red.'” None of it changes what happens Saturday — both teams were always going to play their 100 percent best in this one.
The part I keep circling back to is the chess match. Pete Golding knows exactly what Kiffin and Charlie Weiss want to run because he coached against it every day for years; Kiffin and Weiss know exactly what Golding’s defense wants to do for the same reason. There are thousands of shared reps between these staffs, which is why I think John David Baker has something saved for this one and Kiffin has a wrinkle of his own waiting. My bet is it comes down to about four plays we can’t predict yet — make them and you win, miss them and you lose, whichever side you’re on. And keep an eye on the coin toss: Kiffin will take the ball if he wins it, so the real question is whether Golding defers to weaponize the loudest snap of the night for our crowd.
The Third Weapon Nobody’s Named Yet
Everybody’s going to talk about Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, so let’s talk about the guy under the radar: Caleb Cunningham. He’s the prototype Ole Miss outside receiver — 6-2, 215, runs like a deer — and he just put up six catches for 66 yards against Charlotte in the first real action of his career. Deuce Alexander is the freak and the clear number one, but a real number three who can win outside changes how LSU has to defend us, especially if DJ Pickett shadows Deuce. That’s the guy who turns single coverage somewhere else into a problem.
The other name is Caleb Odom. Six-foot-six, 240 at tight end, and LSU fans know exactly what that body type does to them — he caught a touchdown against Louisville and became a go-to option in the second half. Pair him with a bigger role for Johntay Cook, who’s been coming off the field every time we run 12 personnel with Odom and Luke Hasz, and this is the week I expect the passing tree to finally open all the way up. The training wheels have been on because through two games we simply didn’t need them.
Take the Training Wheels Off Trinidad
Here’s my one real ask of the staff Saturday: let Trinidad Chambliss run it on purpose. Not scrambles — designed keepers, somewhere north of ten carries outside of improvising. Put him in an empty set and he forces LSU to spread out and hand you a favorable box, because he’s got legitimate running-back instincts. We haven’t shown any of that through two games and we didn’t have to. This is the week it shows up.
And maybe, just maybe, there’s a Deuce Knight package in this one. John David Baker played two quarterbacks at the same time at East Carolina, so it’s not a stretch to see a few designed runs with a 6-5, 230-pound quarterback who can hurdle a defender, without pulling Chambliss off the field. As a change of pace, in a game that’s going to come down to a handful of snaps, that’s exactly the kind of math-changer you save for a night like this.
Paths, Predictions, and the LSU Defense Nobody’s Actually Seen
Gordy’s path for LSU runs through their defensive front — the edge rusher who already has five sacks, plus a linebacker corps that plays sideline to sideline — squeezing our run game and daring the back end to hold up one-on-one. Fair. But here’s why I like our side: nobody actually knows what this LSU defense is. They rank first in the SEC in yards allowed and we rank dead last, except that’s Louisville and Charlotte for us and two overmatched offenses for them. Clemson managed one touchdown at home against Georgia Southern; Louisiana Tech hung 80 on a team that let an NAIA school score 42. That’s not a defense that’s been tested — and our offense against a unit that hasn’t played a full stress test is the edge I’m buying, along with a night crowd in Oxford that’s been shown to swing these games.
So we split it. I’ve got Ole Miss winning a shootout, 35-31, decided by those three or four plays. Gordy went the other way — 38-23 LSU — betting the Tigers grab a second-half lead and Kiffin steps on the gas to run it up. We agreed on one thing: if either team goes up double digits, the pettiness cuts both ways and nobody’s calling off the dogs. Nine months of waiting is almost over. Tee it up.
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