The two who didn’t are the two who do this for a living.
Good morning, Everydayers.
One day. Tomorrow night LSU walks into Vaught-Hemingway, College GameDay is already setting up in the Grove, and both of these teams are in the top ten for the first time since 1962. Ole Miss won that one 15-7, in Baton Rouge.
Seven people gave me a prediction on this football game this week. I want to show you all seven at once, because the way they split is more interesting than any single one of them.
🔮 The Seven Predictions
| Who | Pick |
|---|---|
| Bill Flowers | Ole Miss 42, LSU 27 |
| Todd Wade | Ole Miss 34, LSU 31 |
| Tom Vanderford | Ole Miss 38, LSU 28 |
| Michael Katz · Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | A close Ole Miss win — “34-31, 34-27” |
| Steven Willis | Ole Miss 35, LSU 31 |
| Chris Gordy · Locked On SEC | LSU 38, Ole Miss 23 |
| Kevin Rogers · Locked On Bets | LSU |
Five for Ole Miss. Two for LSU. The five Ole Miss picks average out to about Ole Miss 37, LSU 30.
Here is the part I keep chewing on. The two people who picked against us are Chris Gordy, who covers the whole conference, and Kevin Rogers, who handicaps games for a living. The five who took Ole Miss are, to varying degrees, Ole Miss people.
That is either a sign that the people closest to this team can see something the outsiders can’t, or it is exactly what it looks like. I am not going to pretend I don’t know which way that usually breaks.
⚠️ The Best Argument Against Us
Rogers brought a number nobody else used all week, and it is harder than the one everybody has been arguing about.
Forget the raw conference ranking in yards allowed — that one gets flattered by who you played, which is the whole reason LSU’s looks so good. His number is EPA against the run. LSU is 7th in the country. Ole Miss is 110th.
Per-play efficiency doesn’t care that Clemson turned out to be bad. If that number holds up, it points straight at the thing Ole Miss has to survive tomorrow, and it is the reason he took LSU.
Michael Katz had the other half of the case: Lane Kiffin knows this personnel better than anyone alive, because he recruited most of it.
🔑 What They Agreed On
Caleb Odom. Three different people named him the X-factor independently, without knowing the others had. Tom Vanderford called him an Evan Engram type and said he is as good as LSU’s tight end. He missed Charlotte with an injury and Pete Golding said they expected him back.
The secondary only has to be serviceable. Not good — serviceable. If the back end holds up, the front seven stops getting protected and this becomes a different defense. Vanderford’s report is that Ole Miss will have its full starting secondary on the field for the first time all season, with Antonio Kite back after roughly six snaps all year.
Leavitt can be made to give it away. He threw three interceptions against Louisiana Tech — a team that had zero yards of offense in the first half and was still only down 10-7 because of them. Two separate guests brought that up without prompting.
Take the points and defer. Katz and I landed on the same thing live: the crowd is never louder than it is on the first snap, so put the defense out there and take the ball to open the third.
📊 The Line
It opened with Ole Miss favored by a point and a half. It climbed as high as LSU -3.5. It has settled back around LSU -2.5, with the total moving from 57 to 57.5.
That is a five-point round trip in one week on a team that won its last game by thirty-two. The market has changed its mind twice. So have a lot of people.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and quoted as market information, not advice. Predictions above are the individual opinions of the people named. 21+ and present in select states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
🏈 The Numbers
| Kickoff | Saturday, 6:30 PM CT · ABC · Vaught-Hemingway |
| Rankings | Ole Miss No. 8 AP · LSU No. 7 AP · both 2-0 |
| Last year | Ole Miss 24, LSU 19 |
| Last top-10 meeting | 1962 — Ole Miss 15, LSU 7, in Baton Rouge |
| LSU QB scoring | 2 passing TD · 5 rushing TD |
| Missed tackles | 25 in week one · about 10 against Charlotte |
| Media credentials | 300+ requested · roughly 50 press box seats |
🎬 One More Thing
Morgan Freeman is the College GameDay guest picker. That is worth the price of admission on its own.
Get there early. Stay loud. Helmet communication means most of the call now goes from the sideline to the player, and sixty-seven thousand people breaks that. When it breaks, LSU isn’t running the coach’s decision anymore — it’s a twenty-one-year-old making a call in about four seconds, in the loudest building he has been in all year, in the first road game LSU has played this season.
That part is genuinely on the crowd.
📻 The Week on Locked On Ole Miss
- Wednesday · Bill Flowers on the Magnolia Bowl
- Thursday · The Chris Gordy crossover — he picked against us
- Thursday · Todd Wade: put Chambliss in empty and run it anyway
- Friday · Why Ole Miss Wins — three reasons, three keys, three names, and the number
- Friday · Michael Katz of the Daily Journal on the injury report
All of it at olemisshub.com.
🔗 Five Clicks
Is Sam Leavitt really doubtful? Or classic Lane Kiffin chicanery?
The national version of the argument Michael Katz made on the show this week. Worth reading to see that the people who have covered Kiffin longest had exactly the same reaction everybody in Oxford did. (CBS Sports)
Leavitt’s injury status takes the turn everybody expected
The follow-up, with the reported detail behind the listing. If you read one thing about the injury report, make it this and the CBS piece together. (The Big Lead)
The final injury report — and an LSU running back is reported out
The piece of injury news that actually changes something. Read it before you set anything in stone tomorrow. (Sports Illustrated)
What fans need to know before heading to Oxford
Written for the LSU traveler, which is exactly why it is useful — it tells you what the other thirty thousand people in town tomorrow have been told to expect. (WAFB, Baton Rouge)
LSU at Ole Miss — live game page
Bookmark it now. Box score, drive chart and live scoring for tomorrow night. (ESPN)
💬 Join the Everydayers
The LOOM Private Discord is free, and the game thread tomorrow night is the best seat in the house that doesn’t need a ticket. Game threads, film talk, and first looks at everything we build.
Ole Miss 35, LSU 31. Hotty Toddy.
— Steven